When it comes to Twitter, I think the thing that makes it so interesting to watch — both in the activity of its userbase and the way it is perceived in online conversations — is the dynamic userbase it boasts.
Take a look at the chart from Forrester above from a report they did on online consumers last year called “Social Technographs.” They divide up all online users into six behavior sets like rungs on a ladder; those at the top are the most involved, and the inactives at the bottom aren’t involved at all. Users can be members of multiple rungs — they may comment and tag content, but don’t really use social networking sites, for example.
If I take this Forrester model and apply it to what I’ve been discussing with Twitter, I think it shows that what they’ve got is pretty unique and can only keep growing, even if the bloggers and early adopters drift away — though the core base doesn’t seem to be going anywhere yet.
From what I see, Twitter started out as just Creators, Joiners and Spectators. It relied heavily on the creators, the most active and influential of the web, to create interesting and constant updates. But it relied just as much on joiners and specators; those who didn’t care that much about updating others and just wanted breaking updates delivered straight to their phone, inbox, etc.
If Twitter had kept following this model, then I’d say perhaps the bloggers are right. Twitter may have reason to be worried, because their downtime, competitors, and all that fun stuff could threaten the strong base of Creators that kept the service going.
However, Twitter is more than that. The levels have switched — the Creators are still at the top, but Critics and Joiners have made the service explode in the past year (343% jump to be precise). They’ve moved from just microblogging and creating to just stream-of-conciousness that relies on participation and sharing more than it relies on perfectly crafted tweets.
So, anyway, is this the end of Twitter?
Maybe I shouldn’t be so worried about Twitter after all — they’re hiring! Twitter is looking to grow and take on their expanding userbase, indicating that they’re not too worried about a little thing like their imminent demise.
I’ve tried to keep my own predictions of this until this point, but what do I think? Am I waiting for Twitter to be over? Honestly, I think there’s a lot of room for Twitter to explore still; their userbase is growing, their downtime issue has an easy solution, and they’re using creativity to their advantage. I just hope they keep making it great for the users that make it what it is.
P.S. I voted. Then I twittered my vote. Did you?
